I am not super studied in things political, so bear with me as I delve into it a bit. And correct me where I’m wrong.
I have been (somewhat quietly) a Huckabee supporter, so it would be true to say that I was disappointed when The National Right To Life Committee came out in support of Thompson. It would also be true to say that I was amused, or at least bemused by this action. Here is why -
First, I think the Conventional Wisdom is that Huckabee is the strongest Right To Life supporter. But I have read in NRTL materials that they think it wise to go with the candidate based not only on how strongly ProLife they are, but also based on the likelihood that the candidate will win. This can backfire, but this is not what happened this time.
Their mistake, I think, was in choosing too soon. They should have known better.
Another piece of conventional wisdom, from the beginning, is that Thompson was not really in this fight. He was not trying, he didn’t have the aggressiveness it took to win. NRTL shouldn’t have ignored this CW.
Unfortunately for NRTL, their announcement came out just as Huckabee was starting to get real numbers. So, in my mind, and I bet in the mind of others, this looked like a foolish decision.
That this was foolish was proven more completely yesterday. And now what are they going to do? Perhaps they might have helped Huckabee, but now that may be too late.
Still, I hope for their sakes and Huckabee’s sake, that they endorse him. It would be the most honest and courageous thing for them to do, just as it would have been two months ago.
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January 23, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Amir Larijani
Plus, don’t forget that Fred was not really a strong opponent of abortion. He enjoyed his best polling numbers BEFORE he got into the race, and by the time NRLC endorsed him he was already on the way down.
Huck is out of money. He is the Paul Tsongas of the GOP. In the 1992 race, Tsongas was the initial GOP frontrunner, but Clinton overtook him in the money department, PT became cash-strapped, and Clinton proceeded to become the “comeback kid”. The rest is history.
What’s left of the GOP? Rudy Paul McRomney
Rudy: If he loses Florida, he’s done. That will bring it down to Paul McRomney. Romney would have no chance, except for his large cash base. McCain may get the nomination, but the conservative base will end up sitting this election out if he or Romney get the nomination.
Could Ron Paul make a run? I doubt it. Not with less than two weeks until Super Tuesday. If he does, then I’ll get a mohawk.
January 23, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Amir Larijani
Correction: Tsongas was initially the DNC frontrunner in 1992.
January 24, 2008 at 11:07 am
jamsco
I’m still holding out hope for Huckabee in Florida. Miracles can happen.